A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
